Top solar trends in 2026

From

Tobias Straumann

8 January 2026

Global Market Analysis with Focus on Swiss Regulations and Dynamic Feeding

The year 2026 marks a turning point in the history of renewable energies, particularly in the Swiss context. While the global solar industry is moving technologically towards ultra-high efficiency and diversified storage chemistry, Switzerland is undergoing a historic regulatory system change. The full implementation of the "Mantelerlass" (Federal Act on Secure Electricity Supply with Renewable Energies) on January 1, 2026 ends the era of static promotion and initiates the phase of market integration.

This blog post analyzes the ten most formative trends for the year 2026. It combines the macroeconomic perspective of global technology developments with an in-depth exegesis of the new Swiss market mechanisms. At the core of the change is the transition from pure generation focus to a flexibilization of the overall system: dynamic tariffs, harmonized feed-in tariffs, local electricity communities (LEG), and the regulatory equality of vehicle batteries (V2G) will become the central drivers of economic efficiency. The era of blind feeding ends; the era of dynamic, data-driven energy management begins.

The analysis shows that investment decisions from 2026 onwards must follow a fundamentally new logic. It's no longer about maximizing kilowatt-hour harvests in the summer, but about the temporal synchronization of production and consumption and the provision of flexibility for the grid.

1. Global PV Technology Evolution 2026: Beyond the Silicon Barrier

1.1 The Farewell to PERC and the Rise of TOPCon and HJT

The year 2026 will be technologically characterized by the final market dominance of n-type cell technologies, which are replacing the previous p-type PERC cells (Passivated Emitter and Rear Cell). Global production capacity has massively shifted in favor of TOPCon (Tunnel Oxide Passivated Contact) and HJT (Heterojunction). These technologies are no longer just future aspirations, but are defining the standard for new installations in 2026.¹

While conventional modules showed efficiency levels of just under 20% to 22% for more than a decade, the new generation of panels is significantly shifting the commercial standards into the range of 25% to 28% efficiency. This increase in efficiency is not incremental but transformative, as it drastically reduces the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) per installed square meter.

Technological Differentiation:

  • TOPCon: This technology has established itself as the most cost-effective successor to PERC because existing production lines could be converted with moderate effort. For 2026, TOPCon is expected to serve the lion's share of the mass market.

  • Heterojunction (HJT): HJT cells offer even higher efficiencies and a better temperature coefficient, but are more demanding to manufacture. In 2026, HJT modules will predominantly dominate the premium segment and applications where maximum performance in limited space is required.

1.2 Implications for the Swiss Market

For the Swiss market, which is geographically and structurally characterized by limited roof space and comparatively high installation costs (soft costs and labor), this trend is of utmost relevance. Switzerland is not a country for large free-standing installations on flatland; expansion takes place on roofs, façades, and infrastructures.

  • Surface Efficiency as a Return Driver: Modules with higher power density enable more yield in the same area. This is crucial, as the "Balance of System" costs (scaffolding, cabling, labor) are high in Switzerland. A module with 450 watts peak (Wp) on the same area as an old 350 Wp module massively reduces the relative installation costs per kWp.¹

  • Low-Light Performance in the Midlands: New cell technologies, particularly HJT, offer significant advantages in diffuse light and cloudiness. In the fog-prone regions of the Swiss Midlands during winter months, this improves the annual performance metric and contributes to critical winter power supply.

1.3 The Game-Changer: Perovskite-Silicon Tandem Cells

A technological breakthrough increasingly moves from the pilot phase to commercial relevance in 2026: perovskite-silicon tandem cells. This hybrid technology layers a perovskite cell onto a conventional silicon cell.

Functionality: Silicon efficiently absorbs long-wavelength (red and infrared) light, while perovskite can be tuned to optimally utilize shorter wavelengths (blue and green). This combination allows for much better utilization of the solar spectrum than any single technology and promises efficiencies beyond the theoretical Shockley-Queisser limit of pure silicon (approx. 29%).²

Market Stage 2026: Although the potential is enormous, questions of long-term stability remain a focus in 2026. Perovskites are sensitive to moisture, oxygen, and UV light. However, by 2026, encapsulation technologies have made great strides. The first commercial tandem modules are expected for niche applications in 2026, such as in the high-priced BIPV segment (Building Integrated Photovoltaics) or for electric vehicles with integrated solar cells (VIPV), before penetrating the mass market by the end of the decade.

1.4 Aesthetics and BIPV as Standard

Driven by stricter building regulations and aesthetic demands in Switzerland (especially in heritage protection zones), building-integrated solutions (BIPV) will develop from niche products to the standard by 2026. Colored modules, solar roof tiles, and transparent solar façades will benefit from the efficiency increases of basic technology. As of 2026, notification procedures for façade installations in Switzerland are further simplified and standardized, leading to a boom in demand for aesthetically pleasing façade solutions.³

2. The Swiss "Mantelerlass": Regulatory System Change

2.1 Historical Context and Implementation

The dominant topic for all Swiss market participants in 2026 is the complete operational effectiveness of the second package of the "Federal Act on Secure Electricity Supply with Renewable Energies," often referred to in professional jargon as the Mantelerlass. After being clearly approved by the Swiss electorate in June 2024 (68.7% yes votes), the profound changes in the Energy Ordinance (EnV) and the Electricity Supply Ordinance (StromVV) came into force on January 1, 2026.⁵

This ends years of regulatory uncertainty. The Mantelerlass is the response to an impending winter power gap and the need to massively accelerate the expansion of renewables without jeopardizing grid stability.

2.2 Goals and Mechanisms of the Mantelerlass

The legislator aims to pursue a dual strategy from 2026: accelerating expansion while simultaneously integrating into the market.

The four pillars of the directive from 2026:

  • Market premiums instead of feed-in tariffs: For large installations (>150 kW), the support system will shift from fixed feed-in tariffs to sliding market premiums. Operators must market their electricity themselves; the premium only covers the difference to production costs if the market price falls too low. This forces large plant operators to professionalize.⁷

  • Harmonization of feed-in tariffs: For smaller installations (not in direct marketing), the chaos of over 600 Swiss distribution network operators will end (see chapter 6).

  • Winter Power Focus: The expansion of PV (especially on roofs and façades) is no longer considered merely an ecological measure but as security-relevant infrastructure. Facilities that deliver a high winter share (alpine installations, façades, wind power) receive privileged planning conditions and specific investment contributions.⁵

  • Efficiency obligation for utilities: Energy supply companies are required to demonstrate efficiency measures to their end customers, which promotes new business models for energy-saving contracting.⁹

2.3 Investment Implications: The New Architecture of Returns

Investment decisions must be made under completely new premises from 2026. The decades-long maxim of simply maximizing annual production (flat south orientation) has become obsolete.

  • Anticyclical Production: Since market prices in summer tend to approach zero or even negative due to the oversupply of solar power, pure summer electricity is economically hardly valuable anymore.

  • Plant Design: Plant designs that are grid-friendly and deliver winter power are gaining significant value.

  • Steep Tilt Angles & Façades: These optimally capture the low winter sun and are less prone to snow cover.

  • East-West Orientation: This smoothes the generation curve over the day and reduces the midday peak, which better matches the self-consumption profile and minimizes curtailment losses (see chapter 7).

Regulatory facilitations for installations of national interest also mean that large projects in the Alps or on major infrastructures can be realized more quickly since opportunities for objections are restricted and procedures are concentrated.⁵

3. Dynamic Electricity Tariffs and the Digitalization of Billing

3.1 End of Peak and Off-Peak Tariffs

A paradigm shift that directly affects Swiss households from 2026 is the slow demise of classic peak and off-peak tariffs (HT/NT). These static models, originally created to shift consumption to nighttime hours (base-load energy from nuclear power plants and run-of-the-river plants), no longer correspond to the reality of a grid dominated by fluctuating PV. From 2026, energy providers (EVU) must offer their customers dynamic tariffs (time-variable tariffs) if they have a smart metering system (smart meter).¹¹ The Electricity Supply Act (StromVG) and the Electricity Supply Ordinance (StromVV) provide the explicit legal framework for this.

3.2 Functionality Using EKZ "Wahltarif" as an Example

Pioneers like the Electricity Works of the Canton of Zurich (EKZ) are introducing dynamic choice tariffs from 2026. The analysis of these tariffs shows where the whole Swiss market will develop. The model consists of two dynamic components ¹³:

  • Dynamic Energy Component: This is based on the spot market price (day-ahead market) of the electricity exchange. It reflects the actual scarcity or surplus of energy. On a sunny, windy Sunday afternoon, this price can be close to zero.

  • Dynamic Grid Usage Component: This is revolutionary. It is based on local grid usage. The aim is to break local load peaks (peak shaving). When the neighborhood transformer is at its limit, the grid price rises; when the grid is empty, it falls.

Mechanics: Prices change at 15-minute intervals. The tariffs for the following day are usually transmitted to the customer's energy management system (EMS) via API the day before (around 1:00 p.m. to 6:00 p.m.).

3.3 Technological Requirements and Risks

Participating in such models is not a no-brainer. It necessarily requires an energy management system (EMS).

  • Automation is Mandatory: A human cannot decide every 15 minutes whether to turn on the washing machine. The EMS must fully automate the control of major consumers (heat pump, e-car, boiler, battery storage). It receives the price signals and optimizes the devices' schedule.

  • Risk Shift: The risk of price volatility is partially transferred from the provider to the end customer. Without automation, cost traps threaten if consumption is uncontrolled during peak price phases (e.g., the "dunkelflaute" on a cold winter evening). Conversely, customers with high flexibility (e.g., e-car owners) can drastically reduce their energy costs by almost exclusively charging at low prices.¹⁵

4. Local Electricity Communities (LEG): The Democratization of the Grid

4.1 From ZEV to LEG

With 2026, Switzerland introduces a new instrument for decentralized energy supply: the Local Electricity Community (LEG). This is a significant legal and physical expansion of the previous model of the Self-Consumption Association (ZEV).¹¹

The Key Difference:

  • ZEV (Status Quo until 2025): A ZEV operates behind a single grid connection point. Physically and balance-wise, the ZEV appears as a single large customer to the grid operator. The internal network often belongs to the owners. The model was usually limited to a building or directly adjacent parcels.

  • LEG (New from 2026): The LEG allows electricity trade over the public distribution network. The perimeter is expanded to a neighborhood or even an entire political municipality. Participants retain their individual meters and connections.¹⁷

4.2 Economic Incentives: Reduced Grid Fees

The economic driver of the LEG is the rebate on grid usage. Since electricity is generated and consumed locally within the LEG, it does not burden the higher grid levels (high voltage/transmission network). The legislature honors this from 2026 with a reduced grid usage tariff.

Savings Potential: The rebate on the labor prices of grid usage can be significant (often 40-60% of the grid usage labor price). This creates a margin that can be shared between the solar producer and the consumer. The producer receives more than when fed into the grid (see chapter 6), and the consumer pays less than when procuring from the basic supplier.¹²

4.3 Social and Structural Impacts

For the first time, the LEG enables wide participation in the energy transition for groups that were previously excluded:

  • Tenants and Apartment Owners: They can become part of a LEG even if their own roof is not suitable.

  • Commerce: An industrial company with a large roof but low self-consumption on weekends can now sell its solar power to the surrounding residential areas.

  • Storage Operators: Pure storage operators can also participate in a LEG and act as a buffer for the community.¹⁷

5. Storage Evolution: Technology and Economics

5.1 Technology Diversification: Sodium-Ion and Solid-State

The storage market is undergoing a shift from plain "emergency backup" to intelligent trading hubs in 2026. Technologically, the market is diversifying to reduce dependencies on critical raw materials like lithium and cobalt.

  • Sodium-Ion Batteries: This technology is one of the most exciting trends for 2026. It completely avoids lithium and instead uses readily available sodium. Although the energy density is lower than Li-Ion, making it less attractive for long-range electric cars, weight is secondary for stationary home storage. The advantages lie in cost (cheaper raw materials), safety (non-flammable), and performance at low temperatures (important for storage in garages or outdoors in Switzerland). Commercial breakthrough in the stationary segment is expected for 2026.²⁰

  • Solid-State Batteries: These remain largely reserved for the premium EV segment in 2026, but could reach the first high-end home storage units where space-saving is critical.

5.2 Economics Under New Conditions (Spread & Arbitrage)

Until 2025, battery storage in Switzerland was often installed for ideological reasons or purely to increase autonomy ("independence from the utility"). From 2026, the calculus changes to a tough business case driven by three factors ¹²:

  • Tariff Spread: The difference between the low feed-back tariff in summer (market price) and the purchase price in winter or evening (including grid costs and charges) is massively widening. Every self-stored and consumed kilowatt-hour saves approximately 20-25 Rp.

  • Intraday Arbitrage: In combination with dynamic tariffs (chapter 3), storage systems can load cheap grid electricity at low-price times in winter when PV delivers little (e.g., nights with wind peaks or Sunday afternoons) and discharge during the morning or evening high-price phases. The BMS becomes a trader.

  • Grid Fee Exemption: The explicit exemption from grid fees for feeding back (for storage systems without end consumption) creates incentives for grid-serving large storage systems offering regulation power.⁶

5.3 Influence of the EU Battery Regulation

Although Switzerland is not an EU member, the EU Battery Regulation, whose crucial phases come into effect in 2026, has a direct impact. Swiss importers and manufacturers must comply with the requirements to remain marketable.

  • CO2 Footprint: From 2026 (for industrial batteries) and staggered for other types, a CO2 footprint certificate ("Battery Passport") must be provided. This disadvantages batteries from production with a high coal power percentage and favors "green" batteries.

  • Recyclate Quota: Requirements for the percentage of recycled material force the industry into closed loops (circular economy).

  • Second-Life: The regulation clearly defines the status of second-life batteries, which professionalizes the Swiss market for used EV batteries as stationary storage.²²

6. Harmonization of Feed-Back Tariffs

6.1 The End of the Patchwork

One of the most politically and economically significant changes from January 1, 2026, is the nationwide harmonization of feed-back tariffs. The previous system, in which each of over 600 distribution network operators set their own tariffs (from <4 Rp. to >20 Rp.), is replaced by a nationwide uniform reference model.¹¹

6.2 The Mechanics of Quartal Prices

Unless there is an individual agreement (e.g., PPA), the remuneration is based on the quarterly averaged reference market price. The Federal Office of Energy (BFE) calculates this price retroactively after each quarter based on spot market prices.²⁵

The Consequences:

  • Seasonal Volatility: In summer (Q2/Q3), when solar systems produce the most, market prices often fall to the bottom due to the Europe-wide oversupply. The remuneration will be low in these quarters (forecasts suggest a labor price of 2-4 Rp.).

  • Winter Bonus: Prices rise in the winter (Q1/Q4). This rewards systems that also deliver in winter (see chapter 2.3).

6.3 The Safety Net: Minimum Remuneration

To prevent expansion from stalling for small systems, the federal government introduces a lower limit.

  • Systems < 30 kW: A minimum remuneration of likely 6 Rp./kWh (plus possibly HKN remuneration) applies here. If the market price falls to 2 Rp., operators of small systems still receive 6 Rp. This is a "put option" for the system owner, financed by the network surcharge fund.²⁵

  • Systems 30–150 kW: A sliding minimum remuneration applies here, decreasing with increasing system size (formula: 180 / power in kW). A 90 kW system would therefore only receive 2 Rp./kWh minimum remuneration for the performance part over 30 kW. This forces larger system operators more into market responsibility and promotes self-consumption.²⁷

Origin Certifications (HKN): In addition to the price for physical energy, the ecological added value is remunerated via origin certifications. Standardization is also emerging here, with many providers (like EKZ) introducing caps (e.g., max. 3 Rp./kWh) to keep total costs manageable.²⁶

7. Grid-Friendly Feed-In Regulation: The 70% Rule

7.1 Technical Necessity

The massive expansion of PV systems is causing transformers and lines to overload on sunny days in many local distribution networks. Conventional network expansion (copper in the ground) is too expensive and slow. Therefore, grid-friendly feed-in regulation will come into force from January 1, 2026.²⁸

7.2 Implementation and Effects

New PV systems (as well as existing systems when replacing inverters) may feed a maximum of 70% of their installed DC power (generator power) into the grid at the connection point. Example: A system with 10 kWp installed module power may feed a maximum of 7 kW into the grid.

  • Peak Shaving: Since PV systems rarely reach their nominal power (cold, clear noons) and the generation curve is bell-shaped, the curtailment only affects the absolute peak.

  • Energetic Loss: Studies (e.g., by BFH and Groupe E) show that the energetic loss due to this curtailment is minimal (often < 1-3% of annual yield). The economic damage is even smaller because these peaks occur when the market electricity price is already at its lowest.²⁸

  • Intelligent Use: The regulation does not prohibit production above 70%, only feed-in. The energy above the limit can be used for self-consumption (charging the e-car, heating the boiler, charging the battery). The 70% rule thus acts as a strong incentive ("nudge") for the installation of storage systems and intelligent controls (EMS).²⁹

8. Convergence of Mobility and Power Grid (V2G/V2H)

8.1 The Regulatory Breakthrough

The year 2026 is considered the year when Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G) makes the leap from pilot projects to commercial reality. The regulatory hurdles that previously prevented the "car as a storage" are falling.

  • Switzerland: The new electricity law and the Electricity Supply Ordinance (StromVV) provide that grid usage charges for stored and re-fed electricity are refunded. This applies explicitly to mobile storage (e-cars) if they have a smart metering system. Thus, the economically deadly "double burden" (grid charge when charging the car AND when discharging into the house/grid would have been due without this regulation) is eliminated. Vehicle batteries are equated with stationary storage from a regulatory perspective.¹⁹

  • Germany: The neighboring country is also abolishing double grid charges from 2026, which will drive the market for bidirectional wall boxes throughout Europe.³⁴

8.2 Standards and Technology (ISO 15118-20)

The technical basis is the standard ISO 15118-20. It enables intelligent communication between the vehicle and the grid ("Plug & Charge" and bidirectional charging). By 2026, it is expected that most new e-car models and wall boxes will support this standard as standard. The distinction between DC charging (expensive wall box, inverter in the wall box) and AC charging (cheaper wall box, inverter in the car) remains a technical competition. For the mass market (V2H), experts see advantages in AC solutions once the vehicle manufacturers release this.³⁵

8.3 Use Cases

  • V2H (Vehicle-to-Home): The e-car serves as a massive home storage (50-80 kWh capacity vs. 10 kWh stationary) to increase autonomy and avoid the 70% curtailment. It effortlessly bridges several days without sun.

  • V2G (Vehicle-to-Grid): Aggregated fleets provide control power. Since 2026, since storage operators can also participate in LEGs in Switzerland, e-cars could theoretically trade their electricity in the neighborhood.³⁶

9. Solar Obligation and Building Envelope

9.1 Cantonal Heterogeneity

While the federal government sets the broad lines with the Mantelerlass, building regulations remain a matter for the cantons. 2026 shows a heterogeneous picture here, which is challenging for builders and planners.

  • New Buildings: In almost all cantons (e.g., Zurich, Aargau, Vaud), self-power generation in new buildings is effectively mandatory (via MuKEn 2014/2025). Anyone building new builds solar.³⁷

  • Existing Buildings: Opinions differ here.

    • Canton Bern: A far-reaching solar obligation for existing buildings (renovations) was rejected by the people. The counter-proposal, which could come into force in 2026, limits the obligation to new buildings and large parking lots.⁴

    • Canton Zurich: There is no general obligation for existing buildings, but strict requirements for heating replacement (renewable heating), which often indirectly leads to PV.³⁸

9.2 Easements: Notification Procedure for Façades

To exploit the potential of winter power production on façades, the federal government has adapted the Spatial Planning Act. From 2026, simplified notification procedures (instead of building permits) for solar systems on façades apply, provided they are not in protected zones. This significantly reduces bureaucratic hurdles and costs for façade PV and makes BIPV solutions (see chapter 1) more attractive.³

10. Decarbonization of the Industry and Corporate PPAs

10.1 CO2 Regulation and Border Adjustment

The revised CO2 regulation and the CO2 Act, further developed by Switzerland in line with EU climate goals, are putting pressure on the industry. From 2026, the allocation of free emission rights in the emissions trading system (EHS) will be further reduced. This increases the cost of CO2 emissions. At the same time, the Swiss export economy is preparing for the EU carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM). Swiss companies must prove that their products are "green" to avoid punitive tariffs when exporting to the EU. This is driving the demand for origin proofs and direct power purchase agreements (PPAs).⁴¹

10.2 The Rise of Corporate PPAs

Due to uncertain market price developments (see chapter 6), large consumers (industry, data centers) and large system operators (investors) are seeking stability. Corporate Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) are experiencing a boom in 2026. An enterprise enters into a long-term contract (e.g., 10 years) directly with a solar park operator.

  • Advantage for Consumer: Price security and green proof for ESG reporting.

  • Advantage for Producer: Bankability of the project through guaranteed revenues, regardless of volatile quarterly market prices or declining minimum remunerations. The Mantelerlass supports this trend by improving the framework conditions for direct sales and transshipment (e.g., within LEGs or through clear accounting rules).⁴³

Conclusion: The New Complexity as an Opportunity

The solar year 2026 in Switzerland is characterized by the transition from a phase of promotion to a phase of market integration. The "watering can principle" of static remunerations gives way to a system that rewards flexibility, winter power, and grid-serving behavior.

For system owners, complexity increases: they must decide whether to become part of a LEG, choose dynamic tariffs, use their e-car as storage, and how to size their system (70% rule). The simple calculation "fill the roof, feed in, collect remuneration" no longer applies unconditionally.

Table: Comparison of Strategies 2025 vs. 2026

Strategy Dimension

Until 2025 (Status Quo)

From 2026 (New World)

Orientation

South (Max Yield kWh)

East-West / Façade (Winter/Self-Consumption)

Remuneration

Fixed / VNB-dependent

Market Price (Quarter) / Harmonized

Tariff

Peak/Off-Peak Tariff (Static)

Dynamic (15-Minute / Spot Market)

Storage

Autonomy Hobby

Economic Flexibility Hub

Surplus

Feed-In

LEG Trading or V2G Storage

E-Mobility

Pure Consumer

Active Storage (V2H/V2G)

But this complexity offers immense opportunities: those who intelligently control their system and integrate storage can significantly reduce their energy costs despite volatile markets and actively contribute to the stability of the Swiss power grid. The solar market in 2026 is no longer just a market for modules but primarily a market for data, flexibility, and intelligent control.



Configure Battery Storage Now and Increase Self-Consumption: modual.ch/konfigurator


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© modual 2025 - All Rights Reserved.

© modual 2025 - All Rights Reserved.